CCP Virus by the Numbers

Sometimes it can be overwhelming trying to make sense of the numbers when discussing the CCP Virus, COVID-19 or coronavirus.  Sometimes it can, also be very misleading or misinformative.  Daily we see the number of new cases and new deaths.  On some days total cases and total deaths.  But what about the rest of the numbers?  Is there anything they can tell us?  Are they ignored by politicians and the media because there is nothing there to inform us?  Maybe we should take a look.

I have prepared a small table with some of the data to look at.

In the table I have included the top 6 countries by number of CCP Virus cases.  These are the USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the UK.  I included China only because the virus spread from China.  I have also included World totals.

Let's start at the bottom of the chart.  In terms of cases the USA has an almost equal number of cases to the other top 5, half as many deaths, 1.5 times as many active cases, has performed 4/5ths as many tests and has an almost equal population.  Nothing too surprising here.

How about the top 6 versus the World?  While these 6 countries account for 8.4% of the world population they have 64% of the confirmed cases, 75% of the deaths and 68% of the active cases.  Now that data seems to be skewed.  Why is it 6 of the most powerful nations in the world, with the most advanced medical technology available, are suffering the effects so much more than less prepared and less advanced countries, countries with limited resources to combat such a pandemic?

Why aren't the effects being seen more broadly and on more equal terms?  I do not believe it is because other countries people have more natural immunity to the virus.  It is not because the affected countries have denser population.  The Philippines has several of the most densely populated cities in the world and they are 40th in the list of countries in number of cases and 26th in number of deaths with 446.

It is almost as though the countries most affected were targeted.  Targeted for what reason you may ask.  I can think of several reasons but will refrain from discussion.  What I do, however, is encourage everyone to look deeper at the numbers.  Ask questions about what the numbers can and cannot tell us.  Much of the policy being implemented is based on numbers and models.  Models, no matter how accurate the numbers, are always based on assumptions.  If we knew everything the model would not tell us anything new.  So we use models built up from the numbers we do know and assumptions around the numbers.  Many assumptions have to do with human nature.  In the early days of the CCP Virus the first models, to my knowledge, assumed no mitigation to control the spread.  As a result predictions from the model may have had much higher numbers than have proven to be reality.

This was likely a poor assumption to begin with.  Most people I know, immediately upon hearing of the virus, began to implement certain measures to ensure they did not become infected.  People began washing their hands more frequently, they began avoiding individuals who were coughing or sneezing, if they felt ill they avoided contact with others through self-isolation.  No one wants to become ill with any dangerous disease and most do not want their loved ones to become ill.  Most people have the common sense to take precautions to protect themselves and others.  There are the few who believe they are above any changes to their behavior but we cannot punish everyone for the sins of the few.

All of this having been said, the CCP Virus is still less deadly than cardiovascular disease with 200,193 deaths this year, cancer with 185,244 deaths this year, medical error with 77,300 deaths this year or Lower respiratory disease with 49,534 deaths this year.  Some will say but it is much more contagious than any of those mentioned.  Transmissivity does not translate into high death rates.  Recent antibody testing is indicating the number of individuals who have been exposed is between 40 and 85 times higher than current numbers indicate.  This actually has the effect of lowering the death rate significantly.  It makes CCP virus similar to a bad flu season.

I will leave you with a last piece of data.  Of the almost 700,000 active cases in the US now, 14,000 are considered serious or critical, 2% of active cases are serious or critical.  Let's hope they improve.