Update: 17 April 2020, Stay at home orders and lockdowns, including curfews have been issued all across the United States. These orders include the closure of numerous, arbitrarily labeled, non essential business. As of this date 22 million workers have filed for unemployment. The fear created by politicians and the media have created such a panic in the public that there have been instances of violence against those not complying with some of the orders. All the while, CCP Virus remains much less lethal than numerous other life threatening diseases.
WHO has officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic. But what does this mean and what does it change? This is a great question. First, the declaration from WHO was not necessary. Everyone had already been calling COVID-19 a pandemic. Simply put, it means the outbreak has spread to multiple countries around the globe and is spreading within those countries via person to person contact. It changes nothing. It does not bring with it any additional precautions, funding or restrictions. Each country will continue to implement their action plans as they have been doing up until now. Expect, however, some countries to get more aggressive since they see this as authorization to take more aggressive action. Italy had locked down the entire country just prior to the announcement by WHO. The US followed suit shortly after the announcement.
One of the consequences of the disease, and not necessarily intended, is the test of how submissive and compliant the general population is to government controls when confronted with dire situations. New Rochelle, New York has imposed severe restrictions on movement in and out of a large area of the community surrounding the epicenter of the outbreak there. While the mayor has said the National Guard and Police will not be used to enforce this self-imposed quarantine it does test the residents' compliance. Will they abide by the restrictions or will they ignore them. This is happening around the world. Travel restrictions are being imposed by governments on those entering the country and within the country.
Is all of this necessary? I think not but that is my personal view. COVID-19 has not proven to be more virulent than the flu. In the US alone between 20 and 60 million individuals contract the flu each year. Between 20 and 60 thousand die. The worldwide numbers are significantly higher with over 500,000 dying each year. Yet there are no neighborhood, city or countrywide quarantines imposed. We allow sick people to travel and further spread the flu all of the time. The big difference being the mortality rate. Most people who contract the flu recover. In the US the mortality rate is around 0.1%. In other countries, particularly developing nations and those with poor medical infrastructure, the rate is higher. Those most affected by the flu are the very young and the very old. The young because their immune system is not fully developed and the old because they tend to have other health issues that have weakened their immune response.
From 1918 to 1920 the world experienced another pandemic, the so-called Spanish Flu. It is estimated upwards of 20 million people died, possibly 100 million. In the US alone there were close to 700 thousand deaths. This was just after WWI and many countries' resources had been severely depleted, which may have had some effect. The numbers do, however, indicate the Spanish Flu was much more virulent/infectious than COVID-19 appears to be. The world has also changed dramatically. More people have access to running water, general and individual hygiene practices have improved and medicine has advanced significantly.
Just in recent years, there have been other threats to the world population's health. SARS, MERS (both related to COVID-19), Swine Flu, Bird Flu, ZIKA, Cholera, and Ebola. In each instance, the threat was predicted to be much more severe than it actually turned out. This, I say once again, is the result of the news outlets' desire to exaggerate every story in a negative way. The more dire the consequence, the more ugly the outcome, the more readers and viewers take an interest. Everyone wants to know what is going on and what is being done about it. Whereas if there is something good in the news it does not get pushed because it does not retain readers or viewers.
There have been several stories with experts in the field indicating consequences and expectations are being blown out of proportion. These stories fall by the wayside and do not get any follow-up. Even experts from WHO, CDC, NIH have different views and many of these tend to be negative. There is so much self-interest in turning this into the worst possible scenario. Every governmental organization that touches the story benefits from casting it in the most negative light. Congress just allocated 8.6 billion dollars which will be divided among many of these agencies to hire new personnel, buy new equipment, open new facilities. Once the positions are in place they are hard to get rid of. Once the new equipment is in place it requires training of personnel and regular maintenance. Once a new facility is in place it almost always takes another act of Congress to eliminate.
Do not despair. Do the common sense things required in these situations. Stay healthy, do not smoke, wash your hands regularly, avoid people who are coughing and sneezing, If you feel ill, avoid contact with others outside of your immediate family get rest, fluids and recover. 80% of those who contract the flu or COVID-19 recover quickly.
COVID-19 Impacts the Stock Market
The fears surrounding COVID-19 are being blamed for the recent dramatic drop in stock prices. While I do not doubt some of this is true, I believe it is much more a consequence of falling oil prices and the ongoing OPEC posturing with Russia and a market correction that has been waiting for the right excuse. I would not be overly concerned. Once the current crisis is behind us I expect prices to return to recent levels and possibly higher. The one thing becoming apparent is the US needs to be more self-reliant. We need many of our industries to rebuild here at home. In any worldwide emergency, we cannot be dependent on foreign nations for critical supplies.
