By now everyone is aware the House has Impeached President Trump. While they have yet to send the Articles of Impeachment and their Managers to the Senate, the big question is what will happen now?
It is the question everyone is asking and what all of the media are talking about. They are interviewing every pundit willing to express an opinion. However, none have come close to what is going to actually happen. I am going to lay out for you the most probable scenario. This is not what anyone has talked about. At least, that I am aware of.
Everyone knows the Republicans have a majority in the Senate. In order for President Trump to be removed from Office, fourteen Republican Senators would have to go against the rest of their Party. It takes a two-thirds consensus for removal from Office. It is extremely doubtful this would occur. But what can happen? There are a few Senators who have been quite vocal about their dislike of Trump. Mitt Romney of Utah, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, are four outspoken Senators against Trump. Not enough to give the Democrats the votes they need to remove Trump from office. There are plenty of other Republican Senators who do not particularly care for Trump but it is doubtful all of them would vote with the Democrats.
However, not everyone is aware the Impeachment clauses in the constitution give the Senate another option not just removal from office. The Senate can also prevent the President from holding any future political office and this only requires a simple majority of the Senate. So, I predict there will be insufficient votes to remove for office and a motion will be put forward to vote on precluding the President from holding future political office. This would mean he could not be a candidate in the 2020 election, which is exactly what the Democrats want. He would become a one term President. The only caveat in this scenario is it would throw the Republican Party into total disarray. Their is no way at this late stage they could identify and promote a candidate capable of defeating the Democrats.
Vice-President Pence is not strong enough, so he is out. The two or three Republicans who have announced they will run in the Primaries do not and have not gotten any exposure. There is not a single Republican who has the name recognition or the popularity of Trump. Republican Senators probably recognize this and most will not want to hand the 2020 election over to Democrats. It only takes, however, four Senators, whose hatred of Trump is such they do not care about giving the election to Democrats, to defect.
