As the current crisis continues, people are asking every day, How long will this go on? Looking for an answer is not easy. On the one hand, we are told we may be able to resume a bit of normalcy in the summer. On the other, we are told a vaccine may still be 18 months away. People are going stir crazy from being confined to their homes, I am one of them. Anyone with small children is experiencing high levels of frustration and anxiety over 1) trying to keep up with school work so the children do not fall behind, 2) trying to find activities other than watching TV to keep them engaged and entertained, 3) if working from home, finding the time to balance work with the previous two items, and 4) trying to find a moment for themselves to keep their sanity.
We have, for the most part, relied on science and politicians to guide us through these troubled waters. As time has gone on, it becomes more and more evident neither has been effective or provided adequate guidance. At the onset, we were told the effects likely would not be serious. We were told there was no evidence of human to human transmission. We were told the virus was produced in the wild and did not come from some lab (see Origins). Then we were presented with dire predictions of over 2 million deaths in the United States based on modeling of the transmissivity of the virus. We were told to isolate our selves if we had symptoms or had come in contact with someone with the virus. We were told facemasks were ineffectual for the non-infected. We were told to stay at home and avoid human contact. We were locked-down in our homes and prohibited from going to work or performing other activities deemed non-essential. We were told we must wear facemasks in public. We were told everyone will get a stimulus check. We were told small businesses will get loans/grants to maintain payrolls. All this while being fed a diet of fear with no hope in sight.
Being good citizens, for the most part, we have adhered to whatever guidelines we were given. The conundrum we face now is, have any of the guidelines proven effective in ridding the country of the virus? Sure, many will point to the number of cases or the number of deaths and say these numbers would/could have been much higher. Even so-called scientists are saying this but as many a Grandmother used to say, should of, could of, would of, doesn't make it so. There is no empirical evidence any of the measures implemented have put an end to the spread of the virus. Nor is there evidence they have had a significant impact on the outcome. All the evidence is anecdotal and assumed to be the case.
Do not get me wrong. I am not saying the measures should not have been provided as guidance. In particular the common-sense measures such as 1) wash your hands frequently with soap and water, 2) avoid individuals coughing and sneezing or showing other symptoms of illness, 3) if you must cough or sneeze be sure to cover your mouth and nose and cough away from people, 4) if you feel ill avoid contact with others, 5) wash/wipe down frequently touched surfaces, and 6) avoid touching your face or any part of it. These are common-sense measures we can all take no matter the threat to our health.
Politicians, however, used this crisis and the media scare to issue edicts to tell us what we could and could not do. Edicts for which they have no authority. They claim authority under several guises but none truly holds up. The general welfare clause of the constitution, public safety laws, etc. None of which give them the power or authority to deprive us of the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Based on science we have no other recourse they say.
When did science become perfect? Free from error? Science is fallible because humans are fallible. Science is biased because humans have biases. Models are flawed because human bias is introduced willingly and unwillingly. It is unavoidable. Choices must be made as to which variables and parameters are significant and which are not. These choices can skew the output one way or another.
Let's take the original model for the spread of the virus and deaths. The model assumed some rate of transmissivity, R0. R0 is the number of individuals that an infected person will infect. The higher the number the more people infected. Anything greater than one results in what is termed exponential growth. Since COVID-19 was new, hence the term novel coronavirus, R0 was unknown. Scientists and model makers chose to use R0 from some other strain of the virus. I am not sure if it was SARS or MERS or something else but it certainly was not specific to COVID-19. There are other parameters they had to assume for their models. Patient recovery rates, immunity rates (natural or acquired), and a death rate. So what all modelers and scientists should say about their models is, “given the conditions we have established for this particular model, these are the outputs. These outputs can and likely will vary from real-world data due to the unknowns inherent in modeling any natural event.” They should not be saying, “we have to rely on science.”
As both politicians and scientists urge us to rely on science to determine when we can get back to an orderly semblance of life, they continue to destroy that very way of life. Thousands of small businesses are going into bankruptcy. 26 million workers have filed for unemployment. The economic downturn has brought us to 1929 depression levels. More and more people are dependent upon the government for subsistence. Savings accounts of every kind have declined by a third or more in value. What is left is being consumed to continue to survive, pay rent or mortgage, pay creditors, pay utilities, and buy groceries. There is no frivolous spending taking place.
Science seems to have done more harm than good. All while failing to provide a glimmer of hope.